Colorado Fiscal Policy · 1982–2026

TABOR: Timeline and Impacts on State,
City, and County Budgets

Colorado's Taxpayer's Bill of Rights has shaped every level of government in the state for more than three decades. This page traces what happened, when, and how it landed differently on the state general fund, on municipalities, on counties, and on school districts — including where it delivered what supporters promised and where it created problems critics predicted.

53.7%
Yes vote that enacted TABOR, Nov. 3, 1992
51 / 64
Counties that have de-Bruced
230 / 274
Municipalities that have de-Bruced
177 / 178
School districts that have de-Bruced
$3.6B
TABOR surplus, FY 2022–23 (record)
~$1.5B
State budget gap by end of 2026 session
Reading the numbers: the de-Brucing counts show TABOR's revenue cap has been voluntarily lifted almost everywhere at the local level, while remaining fully binding on the state. That asymmetry is the single most important fact for understanding who TABOR actually constrains today.

01How the machine works

Four interlocking mechanisms produce nearly all of TABOR's downstream effects. Understanding these makes the timeline legible.

The revenue cap

Government revenue may grow only by inflation plus population growth (state) or inflation plus local growth (local). Anything above the cap must be refunded unless voters say otherwise.

Voter approval for all tax increases

No new tax, rate increase, or new debt without a public vote. This applies to every district, city, county, and the state.

The ratchet

Because each year's cap is calculated off the prior year's actual revenue, a recession permanently lowers the baseline. Recovery cannot restore the pre-recession level. Partly addressed at the state level by Referendum C in 2005.

The escape hatches

"De-Brucing" (voter approval to keep excess revenue) and "enterprises" (fee-funded government businesses exempt from the cap). Both are legal under TABOR and both are now used heavily.

02Timeline

Click any entry to expand. Filter by the level of government affected.

1982Gallagher Amendment sets the 45/55 property tax split StateLocal

Voters lock residential property at no more than 45% of the statewide assessed base, with non-residential covering 55%. As home values rise faster than commercial, the residential assessment rate must automatically fall to preserve the ratio.

Why it matters for TABOR: Gallagher forces rates down; TABOR then forbids raising them back without a vote. The two together create a one-way downward ratchet on local property tax capacity — the defining problem for rural counties, fire districts, and small school districts for the next 38 years.
1992TABOR passes 53.7%–46.3% on the third attempt BallotStateLocal

Amendment 1, authored by Douglas Bruce, is approved after failed attempts in 1988 and 1990. It applies simultaneously to the state and to every local government and special district in Colorado — a structural choice that distinguishes Colorado's version from tax limits in other states.

Positive: Establishes direct voter control over taxation at every level of government. Colorado's state and local tax burden has since run below the national average — roughly 9.5% of adjusted personal income.
Negative: Applies a single growth formula (inflation + population) to service costs that grow faster than that formula, notably health care and construction.
1993
–2006
The de-Brucing wave: local governments opt out en masse LocalSchoolsBallot

Thousands of local ballot questions ask voters to let the jurisdiction keep revenue above the TABOR cap. They pass at high rates. By 2006, 175 of 178 school districts have de-Bruced; today the counts stand at 51 of 64 counties, 230 of 274 municipalities, and 177 of 178 school districts.

Positive: Demonstrates TABOR's own remedy works — voters routinely approve keeping revenue when the case is made locally and the purpose is specific. Local governments largely escaped the revenue cap while keeping the voter-approval requirement.
Mixed: Creates a patchwork. Neighboring jurisdictions now operate under materially different fiscal rules, and the ones that didn't de-Bruce — often the most tax-resistant, frequently rural — fall progressively further behind.
1997
–2002
Boom years: ~$3.25 billion refunded to taxpayers State

The dot-com expansion pushes state revenue well past the cap for six consecutive years, triggering the largest sustained refund period in TABOR's history.

Positive: TABOR does exactly what it was written to do — surplus revenue is returned rather than absorbed into the base budget, and the state does not build permanent programs on top of temporary boom revenue.
Negative: The refunds also prevent building reserves. When the boom ends in 2001, there is no cushion, and the ratchet locks in the shortfall.
2000Amendment 23 mandates K-12 funding growth BallotSchoolsState

Voters require minimum annual increases in per-pupil funding — an attempt to protect education from TABOR-driven erosion.

The squeeze: Colorado now has a constitution that caps total revenue (TABOR), forces property assessment rates down (Gallagher), and mandates K-12 spending growth (Amendment 23) at the same time. Everything not constitutionally protected — higher education above all — becomes the shock absorber.
2001
–2004
Recession triggers the ratchet; ~$1 billion in cuts State

Revenue collapses. Because the cap resets to the recession trough, recovery revenue cannot be spent even when it returns. Analysts projected a real decline in available revenue of roughly $1.9 billion from FY2001 to FY2007 absent a fix.

Negative: The clearest documented failure mode. Higher education absorbs the largest share of cuts because it has no constitutional protection — beginning the long slide in state support per student and the shift of cost onto tuition.
Local spillover: State cuts push costs down to counties for human services, public health, and corrections-adjacent programs — counties that in many cases cannot raise offsetting revenue without a vote.
2005Referendum C: a five-year timeout and a new cap BallotState

Voters allow the state to retain all revenue from FY2005-06 through FY2009-10, and from FY2010-11 forward to grow a new "Referendum C cap" from the FY2007-08 base rather than the recession trough. Retained revenue above the old TABOR base is earmarked for health care, education, and transportation.

Positive: Eliminates the ratchet at the state level and stabilizes the budget. Another demonstration that TABOR's voter-approval mechanism can be used to correct TABOR's own defects.
Mixed: Does not raise the growth formula itself — the cap still grows at inflation plus population, which continues to lag health care cost growth.
2007CDE erroneously orders school districts to cut mill levies SchoolsLocal

The Colorado Department of Education, reading the School Finance Act alongside TABOR, directs districts to lower their mill levies — even districts whose voters had already de-Bruced and authorized keeping the revenue.

Negative: Districts lose local revenue their own voters had approved, and the state general fund is forced to backfill a growing share of K-12 costs. The error compounds for well over a decade before it is corrected.
2009
–2010
Colorado Springs turns off the streetlights Local

Facing a $28 million gap after sales tax revenue collapsed, and constrained by a Bruce-sponsored local measure restricting property tax increases, the city shuts off roughly a third of its streetlights (saving about $1.2M/yr), auctions police helicopters, cuts bus service, stops mowing parks, and reduces its workforce.

Negative: The most visible national example of TABOR-adjacent service degradation, and a case study in the vulnerability of sales-tax-dependent cities under a revenue cap during a downturn.
Counterpoint: Bruce and other supporters argued the city chose highly visible cuts for political effect rather than trimming administration — a contested claim that remains part of the debate over whether cuts under TABOR are forced or elected.
2009Mesa County v. State — and the rise of the enterprise CourtsState

The Colorado Supreme Court addresses the mill levy question, finding CDE had erred. In the same period, the legislature creates the Hospital Provider Fee as a TABOR-exempt enterprise, accelerating a strategy that reshapes state finance.

Structural shift: Fees rise from roughly 46% of total state spending in 1996 to about 71% by 2023. Between 1992 and 2020 the legislature created 24 new enterprises, collecting $20.9 billion in 2020 and $23.3 billion by 2023.
Critics' view (from the right): Government grew faster than the TABOR limit by routing revenue around it — "leviathan by loophole." Voters approved a cap and got a fee state instead.
Defenders' view: Enterprises let essential services survive a formula that was never calibrated to health care inflation, without violating the text of TABOR.
2012Denver de-Bruces property tax with Measure 2A LocalBallot

After years of reduced library hours, deferred repaving, park deterioration, and waitlists for subsidized child care, Denver voters eliminate TABOR growth restrictions on city property tax revenue — retaining roughly $44 million annually that would otherwise have been refunded as property tax credits.

Positive: Restores service levels and gives Denver durable revenue growth. Frequently cited as the model case for how a large city solves its TABOR problem through the ballot rather than around it.
2011
–2021
Kerr v. Polis: the decade-long federal challenge fails CourtsState

State Rep. Andy Kerr and a bipartisan group of current and former officials argue TABOR violates the U.S. Constitution's Guarantee Clause by depriving Colorado of a republican form of government. In December 2021 the Tenth Circuit dismisses the case for failure to state a claim.

Effect: Confirms that TABOR will not be undone in federal court. Every subsequent effort shifts to the ballot box or to state-court theories.
2017SB17-267 trades a lower cap for an enterprise State

A bipartisan rural-sustainability deal repeals the Hospital Provider Fee and recreates it as the Colorado Healthcare Affordability and Sustainability Enterprise (CHASE), moving its revenue outside the Referendum C cap. In exchange, the FY2017-18 cap is permanently reduced by $200 million — and that reduced figure becomes the base for all future years — plus a 2% across-the-board agency cut.

Positive: Preserves rural hospital funding and frees roughly $500M+ of headroom under the cap for other priorities.
Negative: The $200M cap reduction compounds every year forward, permanently shrinking the state's spending ceiling — a cost that grows quietly over time.
2019Proposition CC fails — voters decline to de-Bruce the state BallotState

The measure would have let the state permanently keep revenue above the cap, splitting it three ways among K-12, higher education, and transportation — an estimated $116 million each in year one. It loses.

Key asymmetry established: Colorado voters de-Bruce their cities, counties, and school districts readily but refuse to de-Bruce the state. This is the central political fact of TABOR today, and the reason the state carries constraints its localities largely do not.
2020Gallagher repealed (Amendment B); income tax cut to 4.55% (Prop 116) BallotLocalSchools

Voters repeal the Gallagher Amendment, freezing residential and non-residential assessment rates and ending the automatic downward ratchet on local property tax capacity. Separately, Proposition 116 cuts the flat income tax rate to 4.55%.

Large positive for local government: Rural counties, fire protection districts, libraries, and small school districts stop losing assessed value every reassessment cycle. Arguably the single most beneficial fiscal change for local budgets in the period.
But: With Gallagher gone and property values surging, homeowner tax bills spike — setting up the property tax crises of 2023–24 and forcing new state intervention.
2021HB21-1164 corrects the 2007 mill levy error; Supreme Court upholds it SchoolsCourts

The legislature phases mill levies back up in 127 districts over 20 years, restoring the local revenue voters had already authorized. The Colorado Supreme Court finds the correction constitutional because those districts' voters had de-Bruced years earlier — no new vote required.

Positive: Recovers hundreds of millions in local school revenue over time and reduces the state's backfill burden — one of the few clean reversals of a TABOR-driven error.
2022Record refunds: $750 individual / $1,500 joint; Prop 121 cuts rate to 4.4% StateBallot

Post-pandemic inflation and federal stimulus push nominal revenue far past the cap. The legislature accelerates refunds into August 2022 checks. Voters separately cut the income tax rate again.

Positive: Direct, immediate cash to households during a high-inflation year — the mechanism working as designed and highly visible to taxpayers.
Negative: Inflation simultaneously raised the cost of every service the state buys. Refunding the surplus while road, construction, and Medicaid costs surged is precisely the timing mismatch critics point to.
2023$3.6B surplus, Proposition HH fails, emergency special session BallotStateLocal

The FY2022-23 surplus hits a record $3.6 billion. Proposition HH — which would have traded reduced TABOR refunds for property tax relief and local backfill — is defeated on Nov. 7. Gov. Polis immediately calls a special session, which cuts the residential assessment rate to 6.7%, raises the value exemption to $55,000, expands the EITC, and flattens TABOR refunds to an equal per-taxpayer amount.

Negative: Local governments and school districts face a property-tax whipsaw with no durable state backfill mechanism. Fire districts and rural counties are hit hardest because they lack a diversified tax base.
Distributional note: Flattening refunds to an equal dollar amount makes them progressive relative to the prior six-tier income-based structure — a policy choice that has been litigated politically ever since.
2024Budget Stabilization Factor paid down to zero SchoolsState

Beginning in FY2024-25 the state eliminates the K-12 funding withholding first imposed during the Great Recession. Over 15 years the factor — originally the "Negative Factor" — diverted close to $10 billion away from school districts. At its FY2017-18 level alone it cut every district's total funding by 11.1%, worth $828.3 million.

Positive: The largest single restoration of local school funding in the TABOR era. SB24-233 also delivers a longer-term property tax framework for locals.
Context: The gain is fragile. Colorado still ranks near the bottom nationally in per-pupil funding, and the factor's return is already under discussion as the state's deficit grows.
2025Surpluses shrink; Medicaid cost growth outruns the cap State

Forecasts cut expected refunds sharply. Medicaid — covering roughly 1.2 million Coloradans — has grown about 86% in cost since FY2018-19, far outpacing inflation plus population.

The core structural problem, stated plainly: the cap grows at one rate and the state's largest obligations grow at another. Every year the gap compounds, and every year it is closed by cutting something that isn't constitutionally protected.
2026~$1.5B shortfall, a disputed $306M refund, and a lawsuit to overturn TABOR StateCourts

The legislature opens the session facing roughly an $850 million gap that grows to nearly $1.5 billion by adjournment. The governor's $46.8 billion FY2026-27 budget proposes keeping $306.1 million by withholding refunds, arguing the state overpaid that amount after federal tax changes altered its revenue calculation — a move Joint Budget Committee staff advised in a Feb. 20 memo would not be legal. Separately, House Joint Resolution 1023 (introduced March 31) would authorize the legislature to sue over TABOR's constitutionality. A May bill redirecting $300 million in refunds draws its own legal objections.

Where this leaves things: the state is now managing structural deficits while simultaneously being required to refund revenue in some years — the clearest illustration yet of a formula misaligned with actual obligations.
The counterargument, sharpened: the Independence Institute's 2026 "Leviathan by Loophole" argues state government has grown faster than the TABOR limit and faster than the broader economy via fees and enterprises — so the deficit reflects spending choices, not a revenue cap that was ever truly binding.

03The state balance sheet

What TABOR delivered at the state level, and what it cost — stated as its supporters and critics would each put it.

▲ Positive effects

  • Genuine voter control over taxation. No tax increase at any level of Colorado government happens without a public vote. This is the strongest direct-democracy tax regime in the country and has held for 34 years.
  • Money returned during booms. Roughly $3.25 billion refunded 1997–2002; $750/$1,500 checks in 2022; $800/$1,600 for tax year 2023. Real dollars back to households, at scale.
  • Below-average tax burden. State and local taxes run about 9.5% of adjusted personal income, under the national average; the median household's state and local tax bill is among the ten lowest in the country.
  • Boom revenue stayed out of the base. Colorado avoided building permanent programs on temporary dot-com and pandemic-era revenue — the failure mode that damaged several other states.
  • Forced deliberation. Every major fiscal change gets argued publicly and specifically rather than absorbed into an omnibus budget.
  • The remedy works when used. Referendum C, thousands of local de-Brucings, and the 2021 mill levy correction all show that TABOR's own voter-approval mechanism can fix TABOR's problems.

▼ Negative effects

  • The formula doesn't match the costs. Inflation plus population doesn't track medical inflation, construction cost inflation, or an aging population. Medicaid is up ~86% since FY2018-19; the cap grew a fraction of that.
  • The ratchet. The 2001–04 recession permanently lowered the state's baseline and drove roughly $1 billion in cuts. Fixed for the state by Referendum C in 2005 — but it operated for a decade first, and still applies to any local government that hasn't de-Bruced.
  • Higher education became the shock absorber. With K-12 protected by Amendment 23 and Medicaid driven by federal rules, unprotected higher ed absorbed the deepest cuts, shifting cost onto tuition.
  • Structural deficits alongside refunds. In some years the state faces a deficit while still being legally required to refund revenue — the 2026 session is the sharpest example.
  • The enterprise workaround distorts finance. Fees went from ~46% of state spending in 1996 to ~71% in 2023. Fees are generally less progressive than income tax, so the shift has distributional consequences few voters ever weighed in on.
  • Permanent compounding losses. SB17-267's $200 million cap reduction shrinks the spending ceiling every year forever, on top of the base formula.
  • Outcome rankings. Colorado ranks around 40th nationally in per-capita K-12 spending despite a top-tier economy and highly educated workforce — the "Colorado Paradox."

04Cities and counties: the statewide pattern

TABOR's local story is largely a story of escape. The jurisdictions that got out are mostly fine; the ones that didn't are where the damage concentrated.

School districts de-Bruced
177 / 178 · 99%
Municipalities de-Bruced
230 / 274 · 84%
Counties de-Bruced
51 / 64 · 80%
State of Colorado
Not de-Bruced
The essential asymmetry: voters said yes locally, over and over, and said no at the state level in 2019. The result is that TABOR's revenue cap now functions primarily as a constraint on the state general fund — while the voter-approval requirement for tax increases remains fully binding everywhere.

What TABOR still does to every local government, de-Bruced or not

ConstraintApplies after de-Brucing?Practical effect on operations
Revenue growth capNo — lifted The main thing de-Brucing solves. Jurisdiction keeps revenue above inflation + growth.
Voter approval for tax increasesYes — always Every new sales tax, mill levy increase, or lodging tax requires a ballot campaign — cost, timing risk, and typically a November-only window.
Voter approval for multi-year debtYes — always Capital planning is tied to election cycles. Drives heavy use of certificates of participation and lease-purchase structures that avoid the "debt" label.
Election timing and ballot-title rulesYes — always Mandatory all-caps fiscal impact language in ballot titles is widely believed to depress yes votes; no emergency tax increases permitted.
Emergency reserve requirementYes — always 3% of fiscal year spending must be held in reserve and cannot be used for economic downturns — only declared emergencies.
The 5.5% statutory property tax limitSeparate law A distinct pre-TABOR limit that still binds many counties independent of TABOR status — a frequent source of confusion.

Operational adaptations local governments made

Fee substitution

Shifting from taxes to fees — stormwater, utility, permit, impact, and franchise fees — because fees for enterprise services fall outside the cap and don't require a vote. The dominant local strategy statewide.

Special districts

Metropolitan and special districts proliferated as a way to fund new development infrastructure with its own taxing authority and its own voters — often just the developer's few initial residents.

Permanent ballot infrastructure

Cities now maintain ongoing capacity for ballot campaigns: polling, issue committees, and a rhythm of November asks. This is a real recurring administrative cost that didn't exist pre-1992.

Deferred maintenance as a shock absorber

When revenue can't grow, paving, facility replacement, and fleet renewal slip first because the consequences are invisible for years. Denver's pre-2012 experience is the canonical example.

05Local case studies

Six jurisdictions showing the full range of outcomes.

Denver

City & County · pop. ~715,000 Escaped successfully

Denver spent the 2000s absorbing the cap the hard way: reduced library hours, delayed repaving, park deterioration, and waitlists for subsidized child care. In November 2012 voters approved Measure 2A, eliminating TABOR growth restrictions on city property tax revenue and letting the city retain roughly $44 million a year that would otherwise have gone back as property tax credits.

Denver is the strongest evidence for the proponent argument: the constraint bound, the city made its case, voters approved, and the problem was solved through TABOR's own mechanism rather than around it. A large, growing, politically cohesive city can do this. That is exactly the profile of jurisdiction that can.

De-Bruced
2012 (property tax)
Annual revenue retained
~$44M
Primary constraint now
Voter approval only

Colorado Springs

El Paso County · pop. ~490,000 Severe service disruption

The most-cited TABOR failure case, and appropriately so — it is Douglas Bruce's own city. Heavy sales tax dependence meant the 2008–09 collapse hit revenue hard, and a Bruce-sponsored local measure restricting property tax increases removed the obvious offset. For 2010 the city faced a $28 million gap and shut off roughly a third of its streetlights (saving ~$1.2M/yr), auctioned police helicopters, cut bus service, stopped mowing most parks, and reduced staff.

The city also fought a running dispute over whether its Stormwater Enterprise Fee was a fee or a tax — the enterprise question in miniature at the municipal level — and eventually phased the authority out. The city has since gone repeatedly to voters for sales tax measures and TABOR questions, with mixed results. Supporters counter that the highly visible cuts were a choice intended to build pressure rather than a strict fiscal necessity; that dispute has never been settled.

2010 budget gap
$28M
Streetlights cut
~1/3 of city
Revenue base
Sales-tax dependent

Jefferson County

Pop. ~580,000 Refunding money it needed

Jeffco had not de-Bruced. In 2021, with property values surging, the county collected $17.3 million above its TABOR limit and was legally required to refund all of it to property taxpayers — while neighboring de-Bruced jurisdictions kept identical windfalls and spent them on services.

This is the cleanest illustration of the patchwork problem. Two adjacent Front Range counties with similar economies and similar assessment growth end up with materially different fiscal capacity purely because of a ballot decision made — or not made — years earlier.

2021 refund required
$17.3M
Neighbors' status
Mostly de-Bruced
Cause
Assessment growth > cap

The 13 counties that never de-Bruced

Statewide · often rural Compounding disadvantage

Thirteen counties remain fully under the revenue cap. When property values rose to historic levels, these counties could not capture the growth — they refunded it. Meanwhile Denver, Douglas, and other de-Bruced counties absorbed the same windfall without restriction.

The compounding matters more than any single year. Because the cap builds off prior-year revenue, a county that refunds a boom never rebases at the higher level; it grows forward from the constrained figure permanently. For rural counties this stacked on top of decades of Gallagher-driven assessment rate declines before that amendment's 2020 repeal — a double squeeze on exactly the jurisdictions with the least diversified tax base and the thinnest administrative capacity to run ballot campaigns.

Counties still capped
13 of 64
Compounding effect
Permanent, annual
Gallagher relief
2020 repeal

Colorado school districts

178 districts statewide Damaged, then partly repaired

Districts de-Bruced almost universally — 175 of 178 by 2006, 177 today. It should have been the clean success story. Instead, in 2007 the Colorado Department of Education directed districts to lower their mill levies anyway, reading the School Finance Act as requiring it even where voters had already authorized retention. Districts lost local revenue their own communities had approved, and the state was forced to backfill a growing share of K-12 costs.

Meanwhile the Budget Stabilization Factor — the Great Recession withholding — diverted close to $10 billion from districts over 15 years, cutting every district's total funding by 11.1% ($828.3 million) in FY2017-18 alone. HB21-1164 finally began correcting the mill levy error across 127 districts over 20 years, upheld by the Colorado Supreme Court because those voters had already de-Bruced. The stabilization factor reached zero in FY2024-25 — though with the state's deficit growing, its return is already being discussed for FY2026-27.

Diverted by BS factor
~$10B / 15 yrs
Peak annual cut
11.1% (FY17-18)
Districts being corrected
127
National per-pupil rank
~40th

Special districts and metro districts

Thousands statewide The structural workaround

TABOR applies to every district, which made the district form itself a strategy. New development is routinely financed through metropolitan districts with their own taxing authority and their own — initially very small — electorate, letting debt and mill levies be approved by a handful of voters before residents arrive.

Fire protection, library, and hospital districts fared differently: they depend almost entirely on property tax, so they took the full force of the Gallagher–TABOR squeeze until 2020, and many now operate at service levels well below what their populations imply. This is where TABOR's effects are least visible and least studied, and where the case for reform is most often made on operational rather than ideological grounds.

Most exposed
Fire, library, hospital
Reason
Property-tax dependent
Key relief
Gallagher repeal, 2020

06Where the two sides actually disagree

Most of the argument isn't about facts. It's about which counterfactual you accept.

QuestionTABOR supportersTABOR critics
Is the cap actually binding? No — government routed around it. Fees went from 46% to 71% of state spending; 24 new enterprises collected $23.3B by 2023. Spending grew faster than the limit and faster than the economy. Yes — for the general fund, where discretionary services live. Enterprises are ring-fenced revenue that can't pay for higher ed, courts, or human services.
Are service cuts forced or chosen? Chosen. Colorado Springs picked visible cuts for leverage; legislators protect favored programs and cut sympathetic ones to build pressure for repeal. Forced. With K-12 constitutionally protected and Medicaid federally driven, the cuts land where they land because there's nowhere else for them to go.
Does de-Brucing prove the system works? Yes. Thousands of local approvals and Referendum C show voters approve revenue when the case is honest and specific. That's the design functioning. Partly. It works where campaign capacity and political cohesion exist. Rural and low-capacity jurisdictions fall further behind, and the state can't get to yes at all.
Is the growth formula adequate? It should be. If government grows faster than population and prices, that's expansion, not maintenance — and it should require consent. No. Medicaid is up 86% since FY2018-19. Construction and medical inflation exceed CPI structurally. The formula was never calibrated to what government actually buys.
What about outcomes? Colorado has a strong economy, in-migration, and a below-average tax burden. The results speak for themselves. ~40th in per-pupil K-12 spending with one of the most educated workforces in the country — the "Colorado Paradox." The state imports talent rather than producing it.

07What an unwind would actually have to address

Neutral framing: these are the mechanical problems any reform — partial or total — has to solve, regardless of which direction you approach from.

The 13 uncapped-by-choice counties

Any statewide fix has to decide whether it overrides local voters who deliberately kept the cap. Politically the hardest piece, because it means overruling a live local decision.

The enterprise question

If the cap changes, what happens to $23B+ in enterprise revenue? Folding it back in blows through any cap; leaving it out preserves exactly the distortion both sides criticize.

The refund expectation

Refunds are now a household budget line. The 2019 Prop CC result and the 2023 Prop HH result both suggest voters will not trade them away for general fund flexibility, however good the underlying case.

The compounded base

SB17-267's $200M reduction and years of low baselines are baked into today's cap. Restoring the formula alone doesn't restore the level — that's a separate and much larger ask.

The legal route is narrow

Kerr v. Polis closed the federal Guarantee Clause path in 2021. HJR 1023's 2026 state-court theory is untested, and critics note taxpayers would fund lawyers on both sides.

The voter-approval provision is popular

The cap and the vote requirement are separable. Most reform proposals that have polled well keep the vote and modify the formula — the cap is where the fight is, not the ballot.